A wider view into 2017 on capital growth and the property market

23 NOVEMBER 2016

A great article from Property Observer I was reading from an analyst at Core Logic.A

“Homes are selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

Homes are selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne: Cameron Kusher

Although values have been increasing for almost 4.5 years, homes continue to sell quite rapidly with a relatively low level of discounting occurring from vendors.

The vendor discount and time on market metrics are important measures of current market conditions. The vendor discounting metric looks at properties selling for less than their original list price and looks at the percentage difference from initial list price to ultimate sale price.

The time on market metric shows the average number of days between when a property is first listed and when it ultimately sells. It’s important to note that each of these measures is based on private treaty sales and therefore excludes auctions.

In September 2016, the average days on market across the combined capital cities was recorded at 39 days. At the same time a year earlier the average days on market was a slightly lower 36 days.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET, COMBINED CAPITAL CITIES

The second chart highlights the average days on market figure across each of the capital cities for each of the past 8 years in September. Over recent years homes have been selling much quicker in Sydney and Melbourne than they have across the other capital cities. Homes in Hobart and Canberra have seen fairly large falls in days on market over the past year which aligns with accelerating value growth. In Perth and Darwin homes have seen a large rise in the average days on market as selling conditions have become tougher and values have declined.

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET, INDIVIDUAL CAPITAL CITIES AS AT SEPTEMBER

In September 2016, the typical home which sold at a discount from its original listing price was discounted by -5.7 percent across the combined capital cities. In comparison, at the same time a year earlier the typical level of discounting was recorded at -6.0 percent. The lower level of discounting is reflective of more demand and fewer homes for sale but is also likely to reflect more realistic initial listing prices from vendors.

AVERAGE VENDOR DISCOUNT, COMBINED CAPITAL CITIES

The final chart shows the discounting levels for each capital city in September over each of the past 8 years. Once again Sydney and Melbourne, along with Canberra, have been seeing low levels of discounting by vendors over recent years. In Sydney and Melbourne in particular this is indicative of strong housing demand which has led to many homes selling in excess of their initial list price. Despite only moderate growth in values over recent years Canberra has consistently recorded low levels of discounting. In Perth and Darwin as the housing market has wakened over recent years discounting levels have increased significantly.

AVERAGE VENDOR DISCOUNT, INDIVIDUAL CAPITAL CITIES AS AT SEPTEMBER

After combined capital city home values have been increasing for almost four and a half years (mainly in Sydney and Melbourne) the level of discounting and time on market remains extremely low. This is being driven by ongoing strong housing demand coupled with relatively low stock levels.  While these conditions persist it is difficult to see how home values in Sydney and Melbourne in particular, won’t continue to increase.”

In our core CBD prestige market much like the housing market we are seeing a very similar story to lower supply and high demand seeing property change hands sometimes off market and most within a 4 week public market selling campaign.

We have some truly unique and absolutely beautiful homes that we have signed up over the last week at roughly 4m, 8.5m and 10.5m that we have already lined up private buyers with further demonstrating the maturation of our premium prestige market.  That being said as this analyst observes he cannot see any reason (nor can I) that prices will not continue to increase across 2017.

 

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